LANSING, Mich. — It's already been a busy Tuesday morning across our neighborhoods with well above average temperatures sticking in the 60's and thunderstorms producing gusty winds and small hail.
As the frontal passage stays stalled out across Mid-Michigan this morning, the track will sag south throughout the day with an area of low pressure tracking east towards our neighborhoods we will have renewed chances for severe storm heading into the afternoon and evening hours.
Daytime highs today are dependent on the track of the frontal passage and how fast it sags south, but we could very well warm back into the lower 70's today across our northern neighborhoods and into the mid to lower 70's for southern neighborhoods.
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The Storm Prediction Center continues the slight risk across all of our neighborhoods for scattered severe thunderstorms today. All impacts remain on the table including damaging winds, large hail, and even an isolated tornado. These threats are still conditional though on whether we can regain any lost instability from additional shower and storm potential during the first half of the day.
At the moment, cloud cover looks to stick around throughout the entire day today with additional rounds of showers and potential storms developing around 1 PM ahead of the sagging frontal passage. This round of precipitation could inhibit ample instability for the second round of showers and storms looking to develop around 4 or 5 PM Tuesday evening.
This second round develops ahead of the cold front that will switch our wind direction out of the north and aid in cooling us into Wednesday. With ample instability, we could see severe impacts through around 11 PM this evening. Make sure to have a plan and safe space in mind in case we run into severe weather.
Storms today could produce heavy rainfall rates that could lead to some localized ponding. the marginal risk for excessive rainfall still exists across all of our neighborhoods today with a slight risk being added for southeastern Michigan.
Wednesday temperatures cool back into the 40's with a renewed chance for tame showers, especially for southern neighborhoods. This is possible given the stalling out of the sagging frontal passage.
Renewed thunderstorm potential returns Thursday as we warm back into the upper 60's and possibly reach the lower 70's. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for scattered severe storms across all of our neighborhoods for Thursday afternoon and evening. Impacts including damaging winds and a tornado or two exist as another system advances through our neighborhoods.
We could still see some changes to this second round of severe potential so make sure to keep tuned in with the forecast as we head through the rest of the week.
Below are the severe threats we could run into for both Tuesday and Thursday's round of showers and storms.
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, some scattered freezing rain could bring some possible impacts to travel, especially Thursday morning. A lot of this freezing rain does look to stay focused to our northwest, but even a light glaze can cause a lot of issues. We will be monitoring closely.
Another round of showers and rumbles of thunder exist Friday with thunderstorm potential back on Saturday with temperatures continuing in the upper 60's. We finally see a change for the Easter holiday with highs dropping to the upper 40's with a chance for rain and snow showers.
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