10 AM UPDATE
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather outlook to include an enhanced risk for severe storms across almost all of our neighborhoods for thunderstorms advancing through Tuesday night. We are watching the time frames of 8 PM to 3 AM.
Both the tornado threat and wind threat have been upgraded across almost all of our neighborhoods. The tornado threat remains isolated with winds, hail, and flash flooding remaining as our main concerns overnight tonight. Make sure to have ways to get updates and alerts.
In addition to the SPC upgrade, the National Weather Service has also issued a Flood Watch for all of our neighborhoods except Hillsdale County. This watch will go into effect at 8 PM Tuesday evening and last through late Thursday night at 2 AM Friday.
Flooding from excessive rainfall could lead to impacted roadways as well as runoff flooding local river sites. Make sure not to drive through flooded water and to make sure your gutters are clear.
Also, send any of your weather video, photos, or reports to us!
ORIGINAL POST
Make sure to have the rain gear ready again today as we are waking up to strong thunderstorms moving across the state of Michigan. A lot of the severe impacts have been observed a bit further north along the stalled out frontal passage, but wind gusts up to 50 mph are still possible along a line of storms tracking through our neighborhoods through around 6:30 AM. Stay weather aware on those roads as we will see the end of this first round of storms by 10 AM.
We will remain south of the stalled out surface frontal passage today allowing for southwesterly winds to keep warm and moist conditions around. We can expect high temperatures into the upper 70's again today.
WATCH THE FULL FORECAST BELOW
An incoming low riding along the stalled out frontal passage will aid in thunderstorm development again Tuesday night across our neighborhoods. Our environment will be prone to severe impacts again as we rebuild instability due to continued transfer of moisture out of the south.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of our neighborhoods in a Slight risk for scattered severe storms Tuesday night. Primary severe impacts include damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and possible large hail. The tornado threat remains isolated with this round of severe weather.
Another important impact to watch out for is heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding concerns. A slight risk for excessive rainfall has been issued across neighborhoods along and north of I-94. A marginal risk exists for all neighborhoods south of I-94. Flash flooding and localized ponding remains possible with these storms.
We could see thunderstorms develop anywhere at or after 6 PM Tuesday. There is a chance that these storms could persevere into the overnight hours similar to how the first round of storms behaved into Monday morning. Looking at our forecast satellite and radar, we could see storms with severe impacts roll through past midnight tonight. Make sure to have a way to get alerts when heading to bed this evening.
We will continue to track showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday with severe impacts possible. However, the severe potential does depend on when this second round of storms advances through our neighborhoods and whether we are able to destabilize efficiently in regards to the tornado threat. These storms also look to arrive late Wednesday evening and possibly last into the overnight hours.
We will dry up on Friday and keep the warmer temperatures in the 70's before cooling down late this weekend with temperatures possibly returning below freezing.
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