LANSING, Mich — A Lansing business owner who demanded tariff refunds last month says the money still hasn't come, and a growing crisis half a world away could make his situation even harder.
- Silver Lead Company president Dan O'Leary moved forward with a delayed shipment from Colombia, banking on temporary tariffs expiring in June, but says the broader uncertainty hasn't eased.
- O'Leary is now shifting sourcing away from China toward Indonesia, Cambodia, and Vietnam to avoid higher tariff rates, but an MSU expert warns even that strategy could be disrupted.
- Michigan State University supply chain professor Jason Miller says a conflict threatening the Strait of Hormuz could send crude oil to $180 a barrel and potentially push the U.S. economy into recession.
WATCH: LANSING IMPORTER STILL WAITING ON TARIFF REFUNDS AS GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN FACES NEW PRESSURE
In February, Dan O'Leary told FOX 47 News he deserved his money back. A month later, he's still waiting.
O'Leary is president of Silver Lead Company, a Lansing-based arts and crafts importer. He had a shipment of craft boxes sitting on hold in Colombia when we first spoke in February.
"We've gone forward with it," O'Leary said. "All we really did was postpone the production of it. We still needed the goods."
WATCH: LANSING BUSINESS OWNER SEEKS REFUNDS AS TARIFF RATES SHIFT
O'Leary pushed the production to the end of March, with a mid-April ship date, reasoning that the temporary 15% global tariffs put in place by executive order aren't set to expire until June. But what happens after June is anyone's guess.
"Nobody really knows what will happen after this temporary situation expires," O'Leary said. "The administration may try to put in other measures, but they're going to have to make some decisions on refunds."
O'Leary still believes those refunds are coming. The Supreme Court's ruling that the tariffs amounted to an unfair tax, he says, means the government has no choice but to act.
O'Leary's optimism hasn't shifted.
"I think it will be delayed and delayed and delayed, but I do expect at least a decent portion of it as an importer to be refunded," O'Leary said.
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Getting that money back, he says, would be transformative for a small business that has been quietly absorbing costs it never expected to carry.
"It's a huge help in all the frustrations and increased costs and loss of profit margin," O'Leary said. "It would give us a little capital to work with and help take care of some of the problems this has caused."
O'Leary is actively shifting sourcing away from China and toward Indonesia, Cambodia, and Vietnam, where tariff rates are significantly lower.
"All those countries still have a tariff, but it isn't nearly what the Chinese tariff is," O'Leary said.
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Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, says the situation for importers could shift again, and not just because of tariffs.
"Right now, I would say tremendous uncertainty is probably the best characterization," Miller said. "We're really trying to get a sense of what's going to be happening."
Specifically Miller points to whether the Strait of Hormuz will see freight traffic return soon.
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The conflict threatening one of the world's most critical shipping lanes is already rattling supply chains across East Asia, Miller says.
South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, nations that rely heavily on inputs flowing through Hormuz, are seeing petrochemical and plastics production dial back.
For mid-Michigan, Miller says the pain is closer to home than many realize.
"Farmers are being negatively affected," Miller said. "We've seen big increases in the prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers, especially urea. Corn and wheat crops are sensitive in this regard."
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Diesel-dependent industries, including logging operations in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, are also feeling the squeeze, with national diesel prices sitting around $5.38 a gallon as of this week according to Miller.
Miller's bigger concern is the impacts of a conflict that continues to drag on.
"If we would get to $140, $150 a barrel oil, it would very likely put the economy in a recession," Miller said. "This type and magnitude of energy shock, hitting an already weak consumer, hitting an already sort of tepid manufacturing sector, is just not something that can be absorbed easily."
O'Leary's newly adjusted sourcing strategy isn't immune.
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Miller noted that a planned meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May could produce a large-scale trade truce, potentially making Chinese suppliers competitive again almost overnight.
"You could see a shift back in that instance," Miller said. "[It's] unlikely but a possibility."
O'Leary is pointing fellow small business importers to a resource he says has helped him feel less alone in the fight: WePayTheTariffs.com, a coalition of nearly 1,200 U.S. small businesses that provides form letters to send to elected representatives and a community of importers navigating the same pressures.
Miller's closing thought was measured but sobering.
"An event like this doesn't unwind itself in the matter of a few days," Miller said. "Even if there was a ceasefire and a truce announced today, this is going to take many, many, many weeks to get things back as close to normal as they would have been in mid-February."
This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
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