Marginal risk for storms today

Posted at 11:16 AM, May 14, 2022
and last updated 2022-05-14 19:41:32-04

LANSING, Mich. — Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. West Michigan has the ingredients to potentially see a few strong, perhaps severe storms with some marginal hail/wind. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region under a marginal risk (the lowest threat category) for severe weather. Locally heavy downpours and lightning are also possible, but some areas may also get missed from this event.

The latest High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and other short term forecast models suggest mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through the morning, with the clouds gradually thickening up and the chance of early/mid afternoon scattered showers/storms. Most of the Amway River Bank Run is expected to come off without a hitch.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from late morning through this afternoon, but most of this activity should be pressing further east by late afternoon and around the dinner hour. So that means showers/storms are possible west of U.S. 131, but a westerly wind off Lake Michigan may create a shadow effect of stabilizing air and perhaps shunt some of the thunderstorm activity. Therefore, the better chance of these storms may actually be east of U.S. 131 through the afternoon.

Most of the rain moves out of West Michigan by 6 p.m. Saturday, with thunderstorms shifting closer to U.S. 127.

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