Colorado State University released its April 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast on April 4th. The big takeaway from the forecast was that we could expect activity to be well above the past thirty year average.
The forecast estimates 23 named storms to develop with a threshold of 39+mph winds. An estimated 11 hurricanes could develop with a threshold of 74+mph winds. This would be above the thirty year average of 7 hurricanes. Finally an estimated 5 major hurricanes could occur with a threshold of 111+mph winds which would be above the 30 year average of 3 major hurricanes.
This forecast is made using 40 years of past data as well as statistical/dynamical models based off of 25-40 years from forecast products across the world. Model guidance this year looks at an above average active season for those along the coast of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Shift from El Niño conditions to La Niña conditions is a driving factor in the possible hyperactive season as La Niña conditions allow for decreasing vertical wind shear and warmer than average sea-surface temperatures.
The April forecast is the initial forecast for the hurricane season. However, Colorado State University expresses higher than normal confidence for this April's forecast due to the favorable large scale conditions that are appearing.
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